Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab combined temperature forecasts with research on how heat affects death rates in more than 24,000 regions worldwide, and found that the super El Niño could cause an estimated 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide between now and February 2027. Michael Greenstone and Tamma Carleton were part of the research team along with…
Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab combined temperature forecasts with research on how heat affects death rates in more than 24,000 regions worldwide, and found that the super El Niño could cause an estimated 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide between now and February 2027. Michael Greenstone and Tamma Carleton were part of the research team along with Genevieve Maricle and Emily Grover-Kopec. They explain why Africa’s Sahel region is projected to be the hardest hit area, and why Nigeria is also projected to be one of the worst hit country. He explains what steps governments need to take now to protect people there.
Africa’s Sahel region is projected to face the greatest loss of life from the heat brought on by this year’s strong El Niño. The Sahel is a belt of dry land stretching across Africa from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, between the Sahara Desert in the north and tropical savannas in the south. It covers about 3.05 million square kilometres and cuts through parts of Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Nigeria, Sudan, Senegal and Eritrea.
There are four countries that are projected to be affected the most by El Niño, from September 2026 through to the end of February 2027. They are Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad.
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